SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – AUGUST 15: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs talks with Cooper Kupp #10 of the Seattle Seahawks after the NFL Preseason 2025 game between Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on August 15, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)
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With the NFL preseason concluding this weekend, organizations and fans eagerly await the start of the regular season. Multiple teams have looked impressive in the preseason, while others have performed underwhelmingly. So, how important is the preseason? To what extent does preseason performance influence a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl?
Although optimism and pessimism arise before every NFL season, premature conclusions are often drawn from the league’s preseason results. For instance, the only two teams to finish 0-16 in an NFL regular season—the 2017 Cleveland Browns and the 2008 Detroit Lions—both went undefeated in the preseason. The 1985 Chicago Bears, widely regarded as having one of the greatest single seasons in NFL history, had a losing record in the preseason. Meanwhile, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the only team to go undefeated from start to finish during the Super Bowl era, ended the preseason with a 3-3 record back when the league played six preseason games.
Exhibition games have been played since the formation of the NFL. This season will culminate in the league’s 60th Super Bowl. During the Super Bowl era, only 20 percent of teams with losing preseason records have gone on to win the Super Bowl. Thus, 47 of the 59 Super Bowl champions did not conclude the preseason with losing records. In fact, all but two Super Bowl winners in the past 17 years finished the preseason with a .500 or better preseason record. What does this mean? Many believe not much.
Preseason Perspectives: Players and Coaches Weigh In
Over the past couple of decades, joint practices have emerged to become an important part of NFL preparation. They provide ample opportunity for starting players to get valuable reps in a competitive environment. Joint practices became increasingly attractive to coaches after the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, which placed limits on full-contact practice days. These sessions made preseason games less relevant for starting units, shifting the focus to evaluating team depth.
Wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who signed a three-year, $45 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks in the offseason, commented on the significance of joint practices and preseason games. In a recent press conference, he pointed out that joint practices provide a competitive opportunity to observe different techniques and coverages. Despite making a rare appearance in the Seahawks’ preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs last Friday, Kupp expressed that he places little importance on preseason games. He added, “If you’re practicing the right way, if you’re going about your business the right way, I’m not sure it makes a difference,” according to Seahawks Press Pass.
Health is a top priority for all NFL franchises. Player injury risk is one of the main reasons the league reduced the number of preseason games to just three. While some coaches prefer their starting quarterbacks get some work during the preseason, Rams head coach Sean McVay has made his stance clear regarding the injury risks in exhibition games. Prior to the Rams’ 2021 championship season, head coach Sean McVay stated on the Doug Gottlieb Show, “There is zero chance you’ll ever see Matthew Stafford take a snap in the preseason for the Rams as long as I’m the coach. That will never happen.”
CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS – July 29, 1999: Former quarterback Trent Green #10 of the St. Louis (Los Angeles) Rams passes the ball during a practice game against the Indianapolis Colts at the University of Illinois in Champaign, Illinois. One month later he suffered a season-ending injury in a preseason game. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel /Allsport)
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Perhaps the most impactful preseason injury in NFL history occurred in 1999, when St. Louis Rams’ high-profile free agent quarterback signing, Trent Green, sustained a serious knee injury during the third game of the preseason. Before the injury, Green was having a stellar preseason, completing 28 of 32 passes (88 percent). Backup journeyman quarterback Kurt Warner entered the game and led the Rams on an improbable run to a Super Bowl title. While the season resulted in a storybook ending for Warner and the Rams, Green’s injury highlighted the physical and financial risks that franchises face when playing key players in the preseason.
Despite injury risks, many head coaches consider the preseason a valuable time for preparation. During an August 6th press conference, Patriots new head coach Mike Vrabel described the importance preseason games from a preparation standpoint. He highlighted key areas of evaluation, such as game operations, penalty reduction, timing, two-minute drills, blocking, tackling, and other core fundamentals, as reported by Patriots.com. Vrabel emphasized that the team’s identity is established before the regular season. While New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll mentioned that teams often use “vanilla” defenses in the preseason, he also acknowledged the importance of getting live reps and playing football. “I think, I like playing in the preseason. I like playing any time I get a chance to do that,” he said in an interview on Giants.com.
NFL Preseason Results: Balancing Promise with Perspective
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – AUGUST 17: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears drops back to pass during the NFL Preseason 2025 game between the Buffalo Bills and the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on August 17, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
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There have been solid performances thus far in the preseason, including an impressive 38-0 victory by the Chicago Bears over the Buffalo Bills this past Saturday night in front of a national audience. The Bears amassed 580 yards of total offense, while holding the defending AFC champions to only 180 scrimmage yards. This game was an opportunity to see Caleb Williams operate within new head coach Ben Johnson’s offense. From the Bears’ perspective, there are certainly encouraging takeaways from the performance.
While the performance was also exciting for Bears fans, it is important to keep things in perspective. These results neither suggest the Bears are destined for a deep playoff run, nor do they imply the Bills are not Super Bowl contenders. Schematically, teams run relatively basic offensive and defensive sets during the preseason. The 2024 reigning NFL MVP, Josh Allen, did not play, along with most of the other starters on both sides of the ball. Regardless, the Bears’ victory provided a clear indication of the new regime change in Chicago.
The preseason has also featured notable individual performances and team transitions. Rookie quarterbacks Shedeur Sanders of the Cleveland Browns and Jaxson Dart of the New York Giants have had their shining moments. Rookie running backs Ashton Jeanty of the Las Vegas Raiders and TreVeyon Henderson of the New England Patriots have also shown promise. Several established veteran starters have played in a series or two to get some work in. In addition, there were seven new head coaching debuts this preseason.
Although preseason results are not necessarily indicative of what may unfold by season’s end, these collective performances serve as valuable learning tools for coaches, players, and organizations. While its importance may be debated, many coaches believe the preseason provides a good opportunity to establish or strengthen a team’s identity.
