Chicago Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw (6) celebrates a two run home run during the seventh inning of … More
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The July 31 MLB trade deadline will set the course for a lot of teams hoping to make deep playoff runs. Come Friday, they will have the roster they’re going to have to depend on for the last two months of the regular season and the postseason.
Each of the teams hoping to add talent in order to help ensure they are successful in October are targeting similar things: Everyone wants better starting pitching, and adding a strong bat to the lineup is always a good thing. But in trading for a starter or a slugger (or both), these teams also have to consider how much they want to mortgage their future to get those players.
For example, the Chicago Cubs are locked in a very tight division race with the Milwaukee Brewers. Their starting pitching depth has been tested by injury, and they’ve been linked to a number of starters on the market as a result. They have also been connected with the Diamondbacks, who are likely going to move Eugenio Suarez by Thursday afternoon.
Both trades would make a significant difference in the Cubs’ playoff hopes. They currently have a 96% chance at a postseason spot, according to Fangraphs, but winning the division would be a major advantage over just getting a wild card spot. The Cubs are going to need to be active at the trade deadline in order to give themselves the best chance to win the National League Central, but that activity has to be weighed against the young talent already in the organization.
That means not only the prospects in their highly-ranked farm system, but some of the guys on the major league roster right now. Namely, starter Cade Horton and Matt Shaw.
Horton has pitched well enough since the beginning of July to secure himself a spot in the rotation even if the Cubs add more pitching, but Shaw’s situation is different. He is probably the Cubs’ third baseman of the future, but until the last couple of weeks, it’s been hard to argue that he is the right third baseman for the rest of the 2025 season. That’s raised the natural question of whether the Cubs should make a move at the hot corner.
If the Cubs make a move for Suarez, there’s little doubt he will bolster the offense. They have done well on their own thus far, but any time a team can add a batter who has 36 home runs and an .898 OPS, they should do it. But Shaw’s play since the All-Star break shouldn’t be ignored. Since July 18, Shaw has hit four home runs and has a 1.542 OPS. He’s 11-for-23 (.478) and has only struck out once. It’s a small sample, but Shaw was a first-round draft pick in 2023 who was a productive hitter at each of his stops in the Cubs’ minor league system. Any player’s rookie season is going to have ups and downs, but for Shaw it’s been mostly down thus far. As for his recent play, however, he credits his uptick in production to the mental break of the mid-July pause in action.
“I think just playing free and having a lot of fun has been really huge for me,” Shaw said. “The All-Star break is nice to get some perspective and kind of take a step back.
“Not grinding, mentally just kind of letting things happen. Not pressing and putting a lot of pressure on myself. Kind of playing with a little more freedom.”
Shaw seems to have turned a corner at the plate, even if the sample size is small. Is that enough to sit back and let another take trade for Suarez? The Cubs are rumored to be in competition for the Arizona third baseman with a few teams, including their division rival Brewers, so passing on him could mean they surrender Suarez to the team that could take the NL Central from them.
For that reason, the Cubs might have to be aggressive about the short term at some expense to the long term. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2017 and lost the division lead to the Brewers late in the season in 2018 and don’t want to see the same thing happen again. Suarez could be a major part of taking a step forward from both of those things. He would be a rental, as he is set to be an unrestricted free agent in 2026, so the worst case long term scenario is that Shaw takes a little bit of a back seat for a few months before assuming the reins at third base again next year.
Whatever does happen, the Cubs have a few more days to keep working to secure their spot at the top of the NL Central. Fittingly, the last three games before the deadline are all against the Brewers. For those games, they will have to win with the guys they have.
“It’s a front office job,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said of the team’s trade plans. “This is our team, and you’re happy with our team, and you’re happy to go to battle with your team tonight, and that’s the way you look at it. It’s not much more than that. It’s simple, really. If there’s new players here, there’s new players here, and we’ll figure it out.”
