Farmers and ranchers from the Rockies to the Plains will be closely monitoring any and every precipitation chance for much-needed soil moisture, although drought will be the main concern for portions of eastern Colorado, northeastward across eastern Wyoming into almost all of Nebraska and parts of Kansas through the summer months, according to the summer forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 15, 2025.
Since La Niña ended a few weeks ago, we been in “atmospheric limbo,” waiting for something else to take the reins.
“Looking ahead, some type of stable blocking pattern will likely develop as we head into summer. Long-range climate models have been remarkably consistent in forecasting the development of a ridge of high pressure this summer across the western half of North America, and those expectations are repeated in the new National Weather Service/CPC outlook,” said Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist, Office of the Chief Economist-World Agricultural Outlook Board, Washington, D.C.
If those expectations are realized, a drier-than-normal summer from the Pacific Northwest to the northern half of the Plains could lead to drought persistence and intensification, possibly extending into the western Corn Belt.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean is not expected to play a major role in shaping U.S. summer weather patterns, with ENSO-neutral conditions forecast (neither El Nino nor La Nina) through the end of the 2025 growing season, Rippey said.
COLORADO SNOWPACK AND DROUGHT
Snowpack in Colorado has been dwindling fast due to recent warm temperatures. Southwest Colorado currently has 14% of it’s normal snowpack, while much of the rest of the state is in the 35-45% range for this time of year.
Drought persists from southwest Kansas northward into central Kansas, as well as parts of northern Kansas. However, drought is more prevalent across most of Nebraska, except a small portion of southeast Nebraska. In Colorado, drought has moved into the western third and southward into most of the four corners region, where Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona meet. In Wyoming, drought has hit southeast and northwest areas.
“The further north you go, the drier it will likely be. Given the drought conditions already in place, it is more likely that drought will continue or strengthen this summer,” said said Kyle Mozley, meteorologist, National Weather Service, Pueblo, Colo.
“The latest drought monitor indicates widespread D2-D3 drought (category) from eastern Wyoming, across much of Nebraska, while areas across eastern Colorado have seen D0-D1 development over the past few weeks. Precipitation from northeast Colorado across Nebraska has been below normal in the January to April time period. In some cases, very dry,” Mozley said.
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MONSOON FORECAST
There is some hope for a relatively decent Monsoon season. The monsoon (seasonal reversal which brings wind and moisture upward into the four corners region where Colorado and Utah border with New Mexico and Arizona) looks to begin in early July, and prevail through August. The CPC summer outlooks hint at above normal precipitation over the Desert Southwest, into the Four Corners Region, Mozley said, although how far north and east that daily afternoon showers/thunderstorms progress across Wyoming into Nebraska, is unknown at this time. A near normal to slightly below normal monsoon is expected over the southwest U.S., courtesy of the climate driver called Madden Julian Oscillation and also Equatorial Rossby Waves predictions. This will need to be monitored and watched, Mozley said.
Looking at the upcoming fall and winter based on ENSO, neutral conditions are favored, however, it should be noted that we are in the spring/early summer predictability wall, which models have a hard time breaking through, and La Nina, El Nino and neutral conditions are all certainly possible in the coming months.
“Overall, I wish there was better news across the central U.S., but dry and hot conditions are highly favored through August,” Mozley said.
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WYOMING:
Interestingly, the day before the CPC’s summer outlook was issued, here’s what Wyoming spring looked like: “Typical Wyoming Spring here, yesterday we had rain, followed by hail, followed by large fluffy snowflakes, followed by snain (mix of snow and rain), followed by rain. It was exhausting just watching it,” said Tony Bergantino, director, Wyoming State Climate Office and Wyoming CoCoRaHS State Coordinator-Wyoming Mesonet director.
“Unfortunately, we are looking at summer having above normal temperatures with that signal getting stronger the farther we go to the southwest. At the same time, there is a pretty good leaning to being below normal in terms of precipitation, too, the double-whammy, with that likelihood getting stronger the farther north one goes in the state,” Bergantino said. If you step forward a month and look at July through September, you get almost the same story for temperature. Regarding precipitation, it is similar as well although the “odds” are not as strong and the far southwest could actually go either way with the rest of the state northward of that having slightly better odds for below normal precipitation, Bergantino said.
Wyoming is currently ENSO-neutral meaning no La Nina and no El Nino are present, and this is expected (at a 74% chance) to continue through summer (June through August). There are better than 50/50 odds that that pattern will continue into the August through October period, still slightly more favorable than a return to La Nina conditions.
“Snow pack has really started to melt out, although Wyoming is starting to get a bit of a rebound in a few basins, thanks to the current system, and I expect some further rebuild of the pack in the coming days,” Bergantino said, adding, “Unfortunately I expect the results to be short-term as we move back into a warm/dry pattern.”
Precipitation chances for this summer indicate slightly leaning toward below normal chances for most of Kansas westward into northern and eastern Colorado. Below normal precipitation is more heavily predicted from the northern one-third of Kansas into all of Nebraska and extreme northeast Colorado. Best chances for precipitation are expected in western and south central Colorado.
NEBRASKA
While the outlook for summer in Nebraska is not the best news, there is some hope.
“The warm and dry signal the CPC and reputable models like the European computer model (ECMWF) show is a symptom of upper-level ridging being prominent in the western and/or central U.S. this summer based on a variety of climate influences (teleconnections.) Where the ridge sets up and how persistent it is will dictate whether we have a summer that may still verify as statistically a little dry but delivers enough timely rain to maintain decent crop yields and some pasture growth — or whether we end up with something that looks like 2012 or 2022,” said Eric Hunt, assistant Extension educator of agricultural meteorology with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “What happens next week isn’t trivial. If that storm system doesn’t deliver meaningful precipitation to most of the state, then the path to success this summer is a very narrow one,” Hunt added.
KANSAS:
Thanks to high soil moisture from winter precipitation and warm spring temperatures, early greening occurred in Kansas, limiting spring fire season.
“After some additional moisture at the end of April, however, vegetation is rapidly using up available moisture and drought stress is quickly re-emerging. This is also being fueled by continued warm temperatures and breezy conditions,” said Christopher “Chip” Redmond, Kansas State University meteorologist and Kansas Mesonet manager. Areas of most concern are where recent moisture has been limited, including the central Flint Hills and northern Kansas.
Summers following weak La Nina and with persisting negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation usually consist of dry summer conditions. With drier/warmer than normal conditions forecast through the summer, timely moisture will be essential to support crops and halt any additional drought effects.
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