The divergence between Bitcoin and tech shares is a warning signal of a possible synthetic intelligence-driven credit score disaster that may end in extra central financial institution cash printing, says Arthur Hayes.
“Bitcoin is the worldwide fiat liquidity fireplace alarm. It’s the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit score provide,” stated the crypto entrepreneur in his newest weblog put up on Wednesday.
Hayes went on to warning that the current divergence between Bitcoin (BTC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index “sounds the alarm {that a} huge credit score destruction occasion is nigh.”
When these two beforehand correlated asset courses diverge, “it warrants additional investigation into any set off that would trigger a destruction of fiat” — principally {dollars} and credit score, which is also referred to as deflation, he stated.
Hayes believes that job losses on account of AI adoption may have a serious affect on client credit score and mortgage debt “due to the lack of white-collar information employee debt donkeys to satisfy their month-to-month funds.”
“That’s a daring assertion to name for a monetary disaster due to job losses brought on by AI adoption.”
AI job losses may set off one other banking disaster
In 2025, corporations cited AI when saying 55,000 job cuts, greater than 12 instances the variety of layoffs attributed to AI simply two years earlier, reported CBS Information in early February.
“This AI monetary disaster will restart the cash printing machine for realz,” stated Hayes.
His unfastened mannequin suggests {that a} 20% discount within the 72 million “information employees” within the US may produce round $557 billion in client credit score and mortgage losses, representing a 13% write-down of US industrial financial institution fairness.
Predicted losses assuming a 20% AI job loss. Supply: Maelstrom
Hayes speculates that weaker regional banks would buckle first, depositors would flee, and credit score markets would seize. The Federal Reserve would finally panic and begin printing cash.
“Whereas the Fed is combating windmills, AI-related job losses will destroy the stability sheets of American banks,” he stated.
“Lastly, the financial mandarins panic and press that Brrrr button more durable than I shred pow the morning after a one-meter dump.”
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Hayes predicted that this surge in fiat credit score creation would “pump Bitcoin decisively off its lows,” and that the long run expectation of elevated fiat creation to save lots of the banking system would “propel Bitcoin to a brand new all-time excessive.”
Along with Bitcoin, Hayes stated that the 2 altcoins that his firm, Maelstrom, will “deploy extra stables into as soon as the Fed blinks” are Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE).
More cash-printing theories abound
Nevertheless, this isn’t the primary radical money-printing thesis Hayes has proposed.
In January, he stated that the Federal Reserve would print cash to alleviate the Japanese bond disaster.
In December 2025, he predicted that BTC would surge to $200,000 by March on account of cash printing via a brand new Fed liquidity software referred to as Reserve Administration Purchases, which resembles quantitative easing.
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