The 2027 presidential election is not going to be a smooth ride for the All Progressives Congress (APC) after all, as the anti-Tinubu coalition recently adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their preferred platform to realise their plan, Adedayo Akinwale reports
For far too long, Nigerians, as well as political actors, have decried that the lack of a formidable opposition party that would pose a serious challenge and threat to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was not healthy for the country’s democracy.
But if the internal crisis that plagued the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) were anything to go by, then the reasons for their concerns were nothing but genuine.
Also, the recent gale of defections by some National Assembly members, Governors, council chairmen and chieftains of opposition from the PDP and LP to the APC initially killed any hope of having a strong opposition party to challenge the ruling ahead of the 2027 elections.
Though while all these were going on, the opposition leaders continued strategising on how best to take the battle to the governing party.
Right from the onset, the opposition leaders agreed that adopting the PDP was never an option. Nevertheless, all cards were put on the table, whether to adopt an existing party or float a new party altogether. The parties considered for adoption were the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
But the once docile opposition coalition pulled a stunt recently by adopting ADC as the preferred platform by the opposition coalition to wrest power from President Bola Tinubu and the APC. It was also brought to the fore that the initial defection of the former Governor of Kaduna state, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai to SDP was part of the plan to confuse the ruling party so that the political talks with the leadership of ADC were not thwarted by APC.
Prior to the unveiling of ADC, the coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar sold a dummy to the ruling party by submitting a letter of intent to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to register the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). While that was going on, the opposition coalition was perfecting its agreement with the leadership of ADC, led by Ralph Nwosu.
However, Tinubu, being a strong member of the coalition in 2013 that later metamorphosed into APC, pressed a panic button by forcing the former National Chairman of APC, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje to resign his position.
Nevertheless, the decision of the President to sacrifice Ganduje to thwart the threat posed by the Atiku-led coalition amounted to nut with the coalition growing stronger by the day since its unveiling.
Be that as it may, the ruling APC would be doing a lot of harm to itself if it chooses to dismiss the political heavy weight that have joined forces together and chosen the ADC as their party of choice.
With the grand entrants of ADC as a formidable political party ahead of the 2027 elections, the ruling party has been enveloped by doubts and fear. The reason, many say, may not be unconnected with the economic policies of the current administration that have forced more people into the pool of poverty and created hardship in the land.
Without being dishonest, while it may be tough at the moment, Tinubu’s economic policies are actually laying the foundation for future growth. In the same vein, whatever policy Tinubu is currently implementing was all contained in his Renewed Hope Agenda, which he campaigned with.
As it stands, in the coming days, weeks, or months, more high-profile politicians and even governors are expected to join the train of ADC, the newest bride in Nigeria’s political arena.
Interestingly, while the former President of the Senate, David Mark emerged as the protem chairman, one of Tinubu’s former boys and former Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola emerged as the National Secretary. Aregbesola, whose political career has been floating and grasping for breath has now been revived with this new appointment.
Speaking at the event, Mark raised the alarm that the labour of the country’s heroes was under vicious attack and the country faces mortal danger.
Against this background, he said the coalition was meant for all Nigerians who share in their belief that everyone — the young and the old, man and woman, rich and poor, living with disabilities or not, town dwellers or villagers, to save our country.
He emphasised that the coalition was also meant for all suffering Nigerians who are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet; for whom the next meal is not guaranteed, and to all the citizens who believe that Nigeria’s democracy is worth fighting for, this coalition is for you.
Expectedly, while some analysts believe that if the ADC is serious about wresting power from Tinubu in 2027, the opposition party should consider an Atiku and Peter Obi joint ticket. But supporters of Obi are not willing to accept that. They strongly believe that with the current zoning arrangement in the country, Obi should be supported by Atiku to contest against Tinubu in 2027.
During the 2023 elections, all the traditional strongholds of the PDP were won by Obi, who has an army of youths in the ‘Obidients Movement’ championing his campaign. Also, with the coming together of political forces, Atiku, a veteran in the game and with a strong grip on states in the North will complement Obi’s stronghold on the South and parts of the North Central.
Speaking with THISDAY, a Legislative Consultant in Abuja, Mr. Akinloye Oyeniyi, was of the view that in every political calculation, a stiff opposition such as ADC, would actually pose a significant threat to the ruling party.
He said: “We all know in the Nigerian democratic setting, power can only be taken through political parties. So, no matter how whirlwind an opposition is, if such does not have a sure political footing, it will end up being a waste of chase.
“We have seen how the SDP was initially touted, the ADA, and eventually the Ralph Nwosu faction of ADC. Then what followed was the entire leadership of that faction resigning to the now David Mark-led leadership.
“Apart from the Nwosu-led NWC not having a sure footing due to the litigation upon its neck, the abrupt change of the party leadership is total contravention of the Electoral Act and INEC Guidelines. The law is that any convention, Congress or meeting where a political party would be appointing or electing an officer, shall have a 21-days notice to INEC. But in this stance, that was not the case. The implication is that whatever is being done in that party is unknown to law. I do not think so.”
Oyeniyi feared that the potency of the Atiku-Obi ticket expired in 2023, adding that in 2027, if Obi is not put forward as the presidential candidate, his Obedient Movement might withdraw their support.
“The 2027 dynamics are different from those of 2023. The Christian middle belt that were afraid of Muslim/Muslim in 2023, the current political patronage spread of the entire Northern ethnic groups, unlike before, PDP not being part of the coalition and other factors are what will shape the 2027 outcome” he posited.
In his submission, the running mate to Obi in the 2023 elections, Datti Baba-Ahmed, while featuring on ARISE News Channel, said that while he has not left the Labour Party, he was already considering joining the coalition.
He, however, feared that the coalition was playing the same game Tinubu played in 2013, that subsequently led to the emergence of Muhammadu Buhari as the President in 2015. He was quick to add that while Buhari was the distant Messiah in the political chess of 2015, the ADC coalition perfectly lacks that and as such the primary election would be tight and close.
His words: “I have not left Labour Party. I am considering the coalition who have adopted ADC right now. Don’t consume the excitement, and don’t be consumed by the excitement. It’s all about excitement, understandably so, because Nigerians are depressed as much as they are oppressed. So this excitement can easily consume everyone.
“The opposition is right in all that it is doing. I agree wholeheartedly in coming together, the principles behind it, the objectives of it, are all correct, but you’re also playing somebody else’s game. This game is Tinubu’s game, and I’m not praising him in any way whatsoever. But everyone must understand the situation as it were. President Buhari, after losing the third time, cried to the world that he’s done with politics. And that’s when it began. Tinubu saw the opportunity, brought him back into the fold, added the South West and the Tinubu influences to his existing 12 million votes.
“The coalition now is playing the scripts of Tinubu. I believe in the coalition, don’t get me wrong, but you don’t have to play the game the way he did. There are structural misgivings in the coalition, as it were today. Buhari was the distant anointed. This opposition does not have a distant anointed. So there will be a very close gap, and so there will be a very tight struggle, possibly, not so clean primaries.”
Meanwhile, the Presidency last Thursday described the newly-formed opposition coalition under the ADC as a hollow alliance of disgruntled politicians, warning that the group poses a threat to Nigeria’s democratic progress and stability.
The Presidency described the promoters as political “desperados” driven not by ideology or national interest but by personal ambition and bitterness towards President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In all, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket is the best shot the ADC could fire that may likely put the back of Tinubu and APC on the ground in 2027.
