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1. Soybeans, Grains Plunge in Overnight Trading
Soybean and grain futures plunged overnight at traders returned from the long Independence Day weekend in a selling mood.
Favorable weather in most U.S. growing areas along with concerns about trade led to the overnight decline in prices.
Only 5.6% of an 11-state region that includes Iowa and Illinois, the largest producers of soybeans and corn, were suffering from drought conditions as of July 1, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
That’s down from 6.1% a week earlier and almost 28% three months ago.
Less than 5% of Iowa was seeing drought last week, down from 8.8% the week prior and 34% three months earlier, the monitor said.
Rainfall this week will keep any moisture deficits from forming in parts of the Midwest.
Also weighing on prices is uncertainty around the July 9 deadline for dozens of countries to reach trade deals with the U.S. or face higher tariffs.
It’s unclear which countries, if they don’t reach agreements with the U.S., will be affected and by how much. Those that don’t reach deals are being threatened with higher tariffs starting Aug. 1.
President Donald Trump has threatened to raise or impose tariffs unrelated to the July 9 deadline including imposing levies on countries that align themselves with BRICS countries — a 10-nation bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Uncertainty around the tariffs and whether the July 9 deadline is causing unrest in markets, analysts said.
Soybean futures for November delivery fell 20 1/2¢ to $10.28 3/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was down $4.40 to $287.80 a short ton and soybean oil dropped 0.44¢ to 54.23¢ a pound.
Corn futures for December delivery plunged 13¢ to $4.24 a bushel.
Wheat for September delivery dropped 12 1/4¢ to $5.44 1/2 a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost 11 1/2¢ to $5.24 1/2 a bushel.
2. Indonesia Remains Important Trading Partner
Indonesia, the world’s fourth most-populous country, has become an important trading partner due to the size of its population and rising food demand, the U.S. Agriculture Department said in an attaché report.
U.S. agricultural imports reached a value of $2.9 billion in 2024, down 3% year over year amid decreased demand for feed ingredients, dairy products and cotton, USDA said.
The country’s largest imports from the U.S. are soybeans, used to make tempeh and tofu, feed products and dairy products.
Since 2010, U.S. soybean exports to Indonesia, which has a population of about 270 million, have increased 56% and wheat shipments increased 14%, the agency said.
“Demand from food sectors such as the soy-based food industry, wheat millers and bakeries were the main drivers for U.S. soybean and wheat imports,” USDA said. “However, weakening purchasing power in 2024 and 2025 to date has reduced demand for some of these food items.”
Exports of feed ingredients, including dried distillers grains, soybean meal and other products, from the U.S. jumped 41% from 2010 to 2024 amid expansion of Indonesia’s poultry sector and use in the aquaculture sector.
Dairy and beef product shipments rose by 82% since 2020, though preferred tariff status for other countries limits U.S. shipments to Indonesia, the attaché report said.
3. More Rain Expected in Devastated Central Texas
Flood warnings and watches remain in effect and more rain is on the way for central Texas counties that were devastated by deadly flooding over the long weekend, according to National Weather Service maps.
At least 82 people have died in flooding in the region including 28 children in Kerr County. Ten girls and one counselor from a camp are still missing.
“Areas of showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across parts of the area by sunrise and then spread west,” NWS said in a report early this morning.
Another 1 to 3 inches of heavy rain are expected with some areas getting more than 5 inches, which will quickly lead to more flooding, the agency said.
Excessive runoff from the rainfall will result in rivers and other waterways overrunning their banks.
“With soils already saturated, this rain will quickly fun off into creeks and streams and allow flash flooding to develop very quickly,” NWS said.
